In the face of a warming climate and a rising ocean, island ecosystems are expected to change in the coming years. Classical island biogeography relates species richness as a function of island size and extinction/migration patterns largely controlled by isolation. Using sea level rise predictions, this study applies island biogeography theory to estimate the decline of plant species richness on the Coiba Islands, a Panamanian National Park off the southwestern coast of the country. An ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) represents the island at present day and was modified to describe the islands at 1 meter of sea level rise with a new hightide at 3 meters and at 3 extreme sea level events (4 meters, 6 meters and 9 meters). Historic shoreline changes were compared to inform the likelihood of projected sea level rise inundation. The present-day vegetation captured by Sentinel-2 was divided into eight vegetation types: mature forest, secondary forest, pioneer forest, fields, cork oak groves, mangroves, dry coastal forest and beach vegetation. The sea level maps and vegetation maps were overlaid to determine the area lost by each vegetation type, representing a scenario in which species do not migrate before being inundated. This estimate of species loss is compared to the predictions made by regressions between island configuration metrics and diversity metrics. In making these predictions, this study aims to be a starting point for further research on the islands' vulnerabilities to sea level rise and climate change more generally. Ultimately, this study puts theory to work for real world conservation planning, as people prepare to respond to the climate to which our emissions have already committed us.
"},{"label":"Degree","value":["Bachelor of Arts with Departmental Honors"]},{"label":"Administrative Note","value":"Drupal Node ID: 23770